Updated

The 60-day memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington expired on Monday, leaving no clear diplomatic path out of the war that began on February 28 and prompting sharply escalatory rhetoric from both capitals. President Donald Trump rejected an extension of the MoU and demanded that Iran "put up the white flag of surrender," while Iranian officials rejected the ultimatum. Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged as a result of the fighting and the uncertainty surrounding the waterway. Washington now claims it has established control of the Strait of Hormuz, a assertion that, if sustained, would shift the balance in the maritime dimension of the conflict. With the MoU lapsed and no successor framework announced, mediators have no agreed channel through which to press for de-escalation. The expiry raises the risk of renewed direct exchanges and further disruption to energy flows through the Gulf.