Updated

In its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment published for September 12, 2026, the Institute for the Study of War concluded that Ukrainian successes in eliminating the Russian salient north of Lyman over recent months had disrupted the Russian command's plan for a wide encirclement of the Donetsk Oblast 'Fortress Belt' from the Lyman and Dobropillia directions. The think tank assessed that Ukrainian forces had contested the initiative at both the strategic and operational levels for the first time since the Kursk offensive of August 2024. It also noted that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces had made confirmed advances on September 11. ISW judged that Moscow would likely need to reassess its campaign design on the northern and southern flanks of the Fortress Belt, particularly if Ukrainian troops could push Russian forces back to the Zherebets River and exploit the canalising terrain to stabilise a defensive line. The assessment carried weight because it cut against Russian President Vladimir Putin's stated confidence that his forces could seize all of Donbas by late 2026. The findings were published by Kyiv Post as part of its daily coverage of the ISW campaign assessments.