Updated

Traders are pricing in a better than 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, with more than a 75% chance of a further hike in December, as attention turns to Kevin Warsh's prospects in the race to lead the central bank. The shift marks a dramatic turn from earlier expectations of monetary easing. Some prominent economists are warning the Fed may be on the verge of a serious policy mistake, urging the central bank to hold off on tightening given concerns the economy may be more fragile beneath the surface than headline data suggest. The debate adds uncertainty to markets already grappling with elevated yields and volatility.