Updated

As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, Western officials and intelligence sources are increasingly warning that Moscow also poses a growing threat to the Baltic states. So far the confrontation has produced only isolated incidents, such as drone incursions into Baltic and Polish airspace, but tensions are rising along NATO's eastern flank. Historian Alexey Uvarov draws parallels to a century ago, when Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia faced a similar threat from Stalin's Soviet Union and were unable to mount a collective defense. The analysis argues that the Baltic states, together with Poland and Finland, need to urgently consider how they would jointly defend themselves against a full-scale Russian attack.