Updated

Traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket now see Democrats holding a slight edge in the fight to control the U.S. Senate, marking one of the party's best showings in these betting markets since the contracts opened. The shift reflects changing sentiment around the political landscape ahead of the midterm elections. The development is being closely watched by investors who track prediction-market signals as a proxy for political risk that could affect fiscal, regulatory, and trade policy outlooks.