Updated

Brent crude oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel as Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports to protect domestic supplies ahead of winter demand. However, the current market shock is driven less by crude availability than by a downstream refining crisis: global refining capacity constraints and product imbalances are tightening margins and raising fuel costs even as crude supply stabilizes. The tension between adequate crude supplies and insufficient refined-product capacity is now the binding constraint on energy markets, with implications for gasoline and diesel prices extending well beyond oil futures.