Updated

A new Kan poll released around October 18 showed Netanyahu's bloc winning 51 Knesset seats against 52 for his opponents' bloc, with a new far-right party failing to pass the electoral threshold and Smotrich's party gaining support. Separately, the Polymarket betting platform gave Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot roughly a 49% chance of becoming prime minister after the October 27 election. The figures reflect an unusually tight contest nine days before Israelis vote in the first election since the October 7, 2023 attacks and the subsequent Gaza and Iran wars, with neither bloc holding a clear path to a governing majority.