Updated

Global fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions fell 0.4% in 2026 to 42.2 billion tons, a slight drop that scientists said was driven mainly by oil price shocks from the Iran war rather than climate policy. The Global Carbon Project study, by more than 140 scientists, was presented at U.N. climate negotiations in Antalya, Turkey, and published in Earth System Science Data Discussions and Nature Climate Change. Oil emissions fell nearly 2% and natural gas fell 0.3%, while coal rose 0.6%. Co-author Glen Peters of the CICERO Center said the timing and type of fuel drops showed the war-triggered shocks were responsible, and he called it good news for the wrong reasons. The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up gasoline and oil prices. Peters noted that after the 2009 recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, recoveries did not lead to lasting clean-energy shifts. Including land-use changes such as deforestation and peat fires, total global carbon dioxide emissions rose 1%. Most major emitters, including China, the United States, Europe and Japan, showed about a 1% drop, while India's fossil-fuel emissions rose 4.4%. Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute said permanent shifts, especially in electric vehicles in Asia, suggest the global peak is near or here. Malte Meinshausen of the University of Melbourne said windfall gains for oil producers unaffected by the blockage could boost efforts to find oil outside the Middle East. Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa said the world still emits more than a thousand metric tons of carbon dioxide every second, while praising China's clean-energy investment.