Updated

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4 percent in 2026, the Global Carbon Project said, as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure drove up oil prices. Smithsonian Magazine reported on November 12, 2026 that global fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall slightly this year, to about 42.1 billion U.S. tons of carbon dioxide. The decline partly stems from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil chokepoint, along with growing solar and wind power. The Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war pushed oil and gas prices sharply higher worldwide, prompting many countries to turn to domestic fossil or renewable energy. Oil emissions are projected to fall 1.9 percent and gas 0.3 percent, partly offset by a 0.6 percent rise in coal. U.S. emissions are predicted to fall 1.3 percent, mainly because coal use dropped after a spike last year, and emissions elsewhere are projected to fall 0.7 percent. The projections appear in a preprint released November 10 in Earth System Data Science that has not been peer-reviewed, and in an analysis in Nature Climate Change. Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter said a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution. Scientists say the decline will not last without accelerated deployment of renewable energy. The Nature Climate Change analysis estimates that renewables should offset 64 to 79 percent of rising emissions through 2028, which Smithsonian Magazine reported still leaves the clean energy transition short of offsetting expected growth in energy demand. Mike O'Sullivan of the University of Exeter called the global scale of the shift completely inadequate, despite rapid expansion of renewables.