Updated

The Rand Europe think tank published a report describing a hypothetical war between Russia and NATO in 2030, in which Putin dies and Russia invades Estonia. Under the scenario, Putin, 74, dies of natural causes in January 2027 without naming a successor, and a former Federal Security Service general becomes president in March. The new leader agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine in exchange for partial sanctions relief, but peace talks stall by July 2027 and the war becomes a frozen conflict. By 2028 his hold on power is precarious amid economic and social crisis, so he launches a hybrid campaign against NATO countries. By 2029 the Kremlin plans a limited operation in the Baltic states, using the suppression of Russian-speaking protesters in the Estonian city of Narva in May 2030 as a pretext. With the United States having reduced its military presence in Europe because of a major crisis in South America, NATO invokes Article 5 and sends troops to Estonia, and the war spreads beyond the Baltics. By November 2030 neither side has achieved decisive success, Western European countries agree to a ceasefire, and Russian forces still control Narva and most of Ida-Viru county. Meduza reported that the analysts stress the scenario is not a prediction but one of several possible paths, though the authors consider the threat of a war against an equally matched adversary quite real by 2030.